2024 Electoral College Changes Could Boost Trump's Chances, Stir Debate on Popular Vote

The 2024 presidential election could hinge on recent changes to the Electoral College map, which could give Republican candidate Donald Trump an advantage. The alterations make it possible for Trump to win with fewer states than required in 2020, sparking concerns about the Electoral College system and the potential for a national popular vote.

The 2024 presidential election, a rematch between former President Donald Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden, is shaping up to be another close and contentious race. However, two significant differences from the 2020 election could play a decisive role in the outcome: the emergence of a strong third-party candidate and changes to the Electoral College map.

The first factor is the presence of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a popular third-party candidate who could attract a significant portion of the popular vote. Recent national polls indicate that Kennedy could garner as much as 16%, making him the most successful third-party candidate since Ross Perot in 1992.

The second change revolves around the Electoral College, which was adjusted following the 2020 Census. Thirteen states experienced changes in their Electoral College vote count, with seven losing one vote (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) and five gaining one vote (Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon). Texas gained two votes.

Overall, Republican-leaning states gained two votes, while Democrat-leaning states lost two. However, the impact of these changes extends beyond a mere four-vote swing. Under the 2024 Electoral College map, Trump could win the election with fewer states than required in 2020.

For instance, in 2020, Trump lost Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia, but still fell one vote short of the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win. Under the 2024 adjustments, however, Trump would have 272 votes with those three states.

Similarly, if Trump had won Georgia and Pennsylvania in 2020, Biden would have still secured enough votes to claim the presidency. However, under the 2024 vote count, Trump would have won with exactly 270 votes in such a scenario.

These hypothetical situations illustrate that the 2024 Electoral College changes could significantly impact the outcome of the race. If Trump wins in 2024 and the Electoral College changes contribute to his success, Democrats are likely to advocate for replacing the Electoral College with a national popular vote system.

Sixteen states, primarily Democratic, have enacted laws granting their Electoral College votes to the candidate with the highest national popular vote count. This law, part of an interstate compact agreement, would only take effect when the total Electoral College votes controlled by these states reaches 270. Currently, the 16 states have a combined 205 Electoral College votes.

Under a national popular vote model, the presidential candidate with the most votes would win, regardless of the candidate's support in individual states. This system effectively overrules the will of voters in states where the losing candidate is more popular.

While the national popular vote proposal may seem simpler and fairer on the surface, it could have disastrous consequences for citizens living in smaller states and rural regions. The Founding Fathers adopted the Electoral College to balance the influence of different regions and population densities.

In the 2020 election, 158 million ballots were cast. With a national popular vote system, a candidate could secure a victory with approximately 79 million votes. The total ballot count for the 10 most populous states alone exceeded 82 million in 2020.

Therefore, under a popular vote system, a candidate could become president without receiving a single vote in 40 of the 50 states. Third-party candidates would also have a greater impact, as every vote cast for them would directly affect the national vote count.

The Electoral College is far from perfect, but it is the best option among various flawed systems. The United States is too geographically vast and ideologically diverse for a national popular vote.

Critics of the Electoral College argue that a president should not be elected by a minority of citizens. However, the issue lies not in the method of choosing, but in the excessive powers granted to the executive branch. The modern presidency has far more authority than the Founders ever intended.

Instead of seeking better ways to elect an all-powerful federal government, Americans should focus on shifting decision-making back to states and local governments. This approach would not only address concerns about the Electoral College but also allow individuals to live in communities where the laws better align with their beliefs.