Biden and Trump's Debate Setup: Close Race, Economic Optimism, and Favorability

A recent Fox News poll indicates a tight race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump for the 2024 election, with Trump holding a narrow lead. Economic optimism is on the rise, improving Biden's approval ratings but not erasing a significant gap among minority voters. Both candidates enjoy strong favorability among their respective bases, with Trump carrying rural voters, white evangelicals, and those without a college degree.

The Fox News poll shows Trump edging Biden by a single percentage point in a two-way matchup, with Trump also leading in a hypothetical expanded ballot scenario that includes Robert F. Kennedy Jr. However, Kennedy's support comes equally from Biden and Trump supporters, and Biden receives more erosion from other third-party candidates. Notably, 15% of voters in the two-way race peel away to other candidates when given the option, suggesting potential for movement.

Economic sentiment has improved significantly, with 30% of voters rating economic conditions as excellent or good, the highest in nearly three years. This optimism has boosted Biden's job approval rating to 45%, the highest since the beginning of his presidency. However, Biden's approval on specific issues, such as the Israel-Hamas war and border security, remains negative.

Biden and Trump enjoy strong favorability among their respective bases, with 85% of Democrats and 86% of Republicans viewing them favorably. Overall, Trump's net favorability score is -7, while Biden's is -12. Kennedy's favorability has dipped into negative territory, marking the first time he has been underwater.

Trump maintains a significant lead among rural voters (+25), whites without a college degree (+25), and white evangelical Christians (+44). New voters are split in their preferences, while fewer of Trump's 2020 voters defect in an expanded ballot scenario.

Currently, 13% of voters hold negative opinions of both Biden and Trump, and they favor Biden by 11 points, despite disapproving of his job performance and economic outlook. This group supported Biden by a 17-point margin in 2020.

Voters trust Trump more on immigration and the economy, the two main issues of the campaign. However, his perceived strength on these issues does not guarantee automatic support, with 10%-13% of those who trust Trump on these issues preferring Biden.

The contest appears to be primarily about Trump, with most of his supporters voting for him rather than against Biden. However, nearly half of Biden's supporters describe their support as "against Trump" rather than "for Biden."

It is too early to determine likely voter behavior, but 68% of registered voters express strong motivation to vote. These highly motivated voters favor Trump slightly.

Amidst Trump's ongoing legal troubles, 46% of voters believe he did something illegal, while 27% say he did nothing wrong. Voters are split on whether Trump is being treated fairly by the legal system. Additionally, 64% say it is important for Biden and Trump to debate, and 43% believe Kennedy should be included in at least one debate.