Biden Trails Trump in Battleground States as Democrats Lead in Senate Races

President Biden faces a significant challenge in key battleground states, with former President Trump leading in head-to-head matchups, while Democrats hold an advantage in crucial Senate races.

Former President Donald Trump has touted strong poll numbers ahead of Michael Cohen's testimony, while President Biden faces a uphill battle in key battleground states, according to a series of recent polls.

The New York Times, Philadelphia Inquirer, and Siena College polls released early Monday show that Democratic incumbents or likely nominees in the Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin Senate races lead their Republican opponents or hypothetical opponents with less than six months to go until the general election in November.

However, Biden trails Trump in almost every single battleground state, often by a significant margin.

In Pennsylvania, incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey leads his Republican challenger, Dave McCormick, 46%-41%, while in Wisconsin, incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads Republican Eric Hovde 49%-40%.

The races in Arizona and Nevada show a closer margin, with likely Democratic nominee Ruben Gallego leading Republican Kari Lake 45%-41%, and incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen leading Republican Sam Brown 40%-38%, respectively.

Trump leads Biden in a head-to-head matchup in nearly every battleground state, including Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, and Michigan. However, in Wisconsin, Biden held a 47%-45% lead.

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.'s inclusion in the polls largely boosts Trump to a bigger advantage. In Arizona, the former president garners 42% of the vote to Biden's 33% and Kennedy's 10%, and in Nevada, 41% support Trump, 27% Biden, and 12% Kennedy.

Trump and Biden tie in Wisconsin at 38% with Kennedy at 9%, and Trump's lead in Pennsylvania grows by four points, 40%-36%, with Kennedy at 10%.

Biden also trails Trump in Georgia, 39%-31%, with Kennedy at 9%, and in Michigan, 38%-36%, with Kennedy also at 9%.

Minority groups that have traditionally supported Democrats appear to be trending away from Biden and toward either Trump or Kennedy. Collectively, Hispanic voters in the battleground states are split at 31% between Biden and Trump, but 14% say they support Kennedy.

Biden still holds a significant advantage with Black voters in the same states with 49% support, but 14% say they are backing Trump and 11% Kennedy.

Just 36% of voters in battleground states say they approve of the job Biden is doing as president, with 60% disapproving.

Trump also edges Biden when it comes to favorability – 45% say they view the former president favorably and 53% unfavorably. Just 40% say they view Biden favorably, with 59% viewing him unfavorably.

The poll results suggest that Democrats face an uphill battle in the upcoming midterm elections, particularly when it comes to the presidential race. The party's hold on the Senate is also tenuous, with Republicans needing to win just two of the competitive races to take control of the chamber.

If Trump wins the White House, Republicans would only need to win one of the races to control the chamber, as his vice president would serve as the tie-breaking vote.