Biden's Struggles Could Spur Split-Ticket Voting in Senate Races

Democratic donor Dmitri Mehlhorn believes that President Biden's ailing health could lead to more voters choosing different parties for presidential and Senate candidates.

With President Biden's approval ratings in decline, Democratic candidates in swing states may need to distance themselves from the national ticket to improve their chances of re-election. This could lead to an increase in split-ticket voting, where voters choose different parties for different offices.

Split-ticket voting has been more common in recent decades, benefiting Democrats who have often been able to win Senate seats in states where Republican presidents have won. However, this practice has been declining in recent years, which could make it harder for vulnerable Democrats in the current political environment.

Biden's Struggles Could Spur Split-Ticket Voting in Senate Races

According to Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, "If a candidate feels like the presidential candidate is going to lose his or her state, naturally they have to figure out ways to create distance between themselves and the presidential candidate."

Madison Barry Burden, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin, agrees. "As long as Senate Democrats continue to run ahead of Biden in their states, the candidates are likely to stop short of completely linking themselves to Biden to avoid being pulled down," he said.

Biden's Struggles Could Spur Split-Ticket Voting in Senate Races

However, the calculus may be different in swing states such as Pennsylvania than in red states such as Montana.

Republican strategist Doug Heye noted, "No elected Democrat — safe seat or in-play — wants to be first to state the obvious about President Biden’s state of health," referencing the relative silence of at-risk Democrats amid Biden's poor debate performance against former President Trump last month.

Biden's Struggles Could Spur Split-Ticket Voting in Senate Races

If Biden's health continues to decline, it could further erode his support and make it even more difficult for Democrats to win Senate races in swing states.

Democrats face a particularly difficult Senate election map this year, with multiple incumbents in swing states seeking another term. They also only have a remarkably slim 51-49 majority over their Republican counterparts, who enjoy a much more favorable map this cycle.

Biden's Struggles Could Spur Split-Ticket Voting in Senate Races

Split-ticket voting could help Democrats preserve their majority in the Senate, but it could also make it more difficult for them to win back control of the chamber if they lose.

In the 2020 election, Biden won the popular vote by more than 7 million votes, but Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives. This shows that split-ticket voting can be a challenge for both parties.

Biden's Struggles Could Spur Split-Ticket Voting in Senate Races

It remains to be seen whether split-ticket voting will continue to decline in 2024. If it does, it could make it even more difficult for Democrats to win Senate races in swing states.