CNN Data Guru: Trump Still in the Race Despite Harris Gains

CNN's Harry Enten warns that polls have historically underestimated Donald Trump, and despite Vice President Harris' gains in the polls, the former president is still very much in the race.

CNN's Harry Enten has issued a cautionary note about underestimating Donald Trump in the polls, despite Vice President Kamala Harris' recent gains. Enten pointed out that Trump has consistently performed better than polls predicted in past elections, particularly in key swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

In 2016, Trump trailed Hillary Clinton in the polls by an average of nine points in these states. However, he ultimately won Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by narrow margins. In 2020, Trump again outperformed the polls, trailing Biden by just five points on average in these states.

CNN Data Guru: Trump Still in the Race Despite Harris Gains

Harris has made significant gains in polling against Trump, with the New York Times-Sienna College poll showing her leading Trump by four points in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. However, Enten cautioned that Trump is still very much in the race, and a shift in the polls could lead to a victory for the former president.

"The bottom line is this: If you have any idea- if you're a Kamala Harris fan and you want to rip open the champagne bottle, pop that cork, do not do it," Enten said. "Donald Trump is very much in this race. If we have a polling shift like we've seen in prior years, from now until the final result, Donald Trump would actually win. I'm not saying that's going to happen, but I am saying that he is very much in this ball game based upon where he is right now, and compare that to where he was in prior years."

CNN Data Guru: Trump Still in the Race Despite Harris Gains

Enten also noted that Trump has a 10-point lead in key swing states over President Biden, when he was still in the race, on issues most important to voters. However, Enten said, Trump's lead dropped significantly after Harris became the nominee when Biden dropped out.

"Jump forward now to Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, what do we see? We see a completely different ballgame. We see Harris at 50%, we see Donald Trump at 48%," he said on Monday.

CNN Data Guru: Trump Still in the Race Despite Harris Gains

Enten also said Tuesday that polling data on registered voters who said they were certain they were going to vote has not changed for either Biden-Harris or Trump voters since Harris became the nominee.

"I will note this, Donald Trump is more popular today than he was on August 13 in either 2020 or 2016. So the bottom line is yes, Kamala Harris is doing better in the polls, but there's a long way to go. The polls can shift. The almost certain to vote hasn't actually shifted, and Donald Trump is more popular than he was at either 2016 or 2020 at this point," Enten concluded on Tuesday.

Trump narrowly won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016 en route to his victory over Hillary Clinton, but Biden flipped them back in the blue column in 2020. The three states have all been "bellwether" states in the past four presidential elections, meaning whoever won them also won the general election.