Escalating Tensions: China's Aggressive Actions in the South China Sea Threaten Philippine Sovereignty

The United States' reputation as a reliable ally is on the line as China continues to harass and interfere with Philippine maritime activities, undermining Philippine sovereignty and challenging the regional balance of power.

In the disputed waters of the South China Sea, where tensions have been simmering for decades, a recent incident involving the Chinese and Philippine coast guards has brought the long-standing territorial dispute back into the spotlight. On June 17th, Chinese vessels blocked a Philippine coast guard ship attempting to evacuate a sick crew member from an old navy ship grounded on Second Thomas Shoal.

Armed with knives, axes, spears, lasers, and sound weapons, the Chinese coast guard aggressively maneuvered to prevent the Philippine resupply, ultimately seizing boats and damaging Philippine property. The conflict highlights China's increasingly assertive behavior in the South China Sea, where Beijing claims ownership of vast swathes of the strategically important waterway, overlapping with the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of several neighboring countries.

Escalating Tensions: China's Aggressive Actions in the South China Sea Threaten Philippine Sovereignty

Despite the Philippines' well-established EEZ, China has been obstructing Philippine Coast Guard and Navy resupply efforts with increasing force. This pattern of dominance, control, and potential seizure by the Chinese has been witnessed throughout the South China Sea.

The recent clash underscores China's willingness to use force to achieve its maritime territorial ambitions. The People's Armed Forces Maritime Militia and the Chinese fishing fleet, often intertwined with Coast Guard operations, augment the Chinese presence in the disputed waters. The PLAN (Chinese Navy) also remains stationed nearby, ready to intervene if necessary.

Escalating Tensions: China's Aggressive Actions in the South China Sea Threaten Philippine Sovereignty

Despite the technological and numerical superiority of the Chinese, the Philippines faces a daunting task in defending its maritime claims. Manila's options are limited, and any hopes of regaining control of Second Thomas Shoal rest on the support of its allies, primarily the United States.

The United States has a treaty obligation to defend the Philippines from external aggression. However, Washington's record in upholding these commitments has been spotty. In 2012, the US failed to assist the Philippines when China illegally occupied Philippine territory at Scarborough Shoal. Similarly, in 2016, the US declined to enforce the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) ruling that rejected China's excessive claims in the South China Sea.

Escalating Tensions: China's Aggressive Actions in the South China Sea Threaten Philippine Sovereignty

Filipino officials and citizens are rightfully skeptical of the value of the mutual defense treaty and the recent Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), which allows greater US military activity in the Philippines. The question remains whether the US is genuinely committed to defending its allies or will simply abandon them when push comes to shove.

To establish its credibility, the US must take concrete actions. Accompanying Philippine boats with US Navy ships and aircraft, resupplying Second Thomas Shoal, and assisting the Philippines in building a permanent structure on the shoal would send a clear message to Beijing.

Escalating Tensions: China's Aggressive Actions in the South China Sea Threaten Philippine Sovereignty

Additionally, asymmetric pressure, such as suspending the People's Bank of China's license to operate in the US dollar system or banning technology exports to China, could force Beijing to reconsider its aggressive behavior.

By taking these measures, the US can demonstrate its commitment to the Philippines and deter further Chinese aggression in the South China Sea. Failure to act, on the other hand, will result in the loss of US credibility, the undermining of the regional order, and the potential for a more destabilizing escalation of tensions.

Escalating Tensions: China's Aggressive Actions in the South China Sea Threaten Philippine Sovereignty