French Election Heats Up as RN Aims for Majority, Hinting at Hung Parliament

With the second round of voting for France's National Assembly elections approaching, the right-wing National Rally (RN) is poised to become the largest party in government, despite facing an uphill battle towards a clear majority. The current government, a coalition of parties led by President Emmanuel Macron, faces an uncertain future as the election results shape the political landscape of France.

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French Election Heats Up as RN Aims for Majority, Hinting at Hung Parliament

France is on the brink of a momentous election that could reshape the nation's political order. As the second round of voting for the National Assembly looms, the right-wing National Rally (RN) is poised to become the largest party in government, posing a significant challenge to the incumbent administration.

The first round of voting, held on June 30th, revealed a fragmented political landscape, with no party securing an outright majority. The RN emerged as the frontrunner, securing 31.5% of the vote, a stunning performance that has sent shockwaves through the French establishment.

French Election Heats Up as RN Aims for Majority, Hinting at Hung Parliament

The current government, a coalition of parties known as the "ensemble," faces an uncertain future in light of RN's strong showing. Despite the electoral setback, President Emmanuel Macron retains his mandate until the 2027 election.

The potential for a hung parliament adds further uncertainty to the election outcome. According to recent polls, RN is projected to win between 190 and 220 seats, falling short of the 289 needed for a majority. Its closest ally, the Republicans, is expected to win only around 50 seats, ruling out the possibility of a right-wing coalition.

French Election Heats Up as RN Aims for Majority, Hinting at Hung Parliament

The New Popular Front alliance is projected to emerge as the second-largest force, with a potential 159 to 183 seats, leaving Macron's alliance in third place with around 110 to 135 seats. Macron has ruled out any alliance with the left-wing party France Unbowed (LFI), which finished fourth in the first round.

In an effort to prevent RN from seizing control of the assembly, candidates from Macron's alliance who advanced to the runoff are stepping down in favor of stronger non-RN contenders. Former Prime Minister Edouard Phillippe has even declared his support for a Communist candidate to block RN's victory.

French Election Heats Up as RN Aims for Majority, Hinting at Hung Parliament

The RN's resurgence is fueled by a surge in support among rural and working-class voters, who are drawn to its anti-immigration and anti-EU message. Marine Le Pen, the party's leader, has sought to distance RN from its extremist past, but concerns remain over its anti-Islam rhetoric and its connections to far-right groups.

Opposition to RN stems from its roots as the National Front, which was led by Le Pen's father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, who was repeatedly convicted for racist and antisemitic remarks. However, Marine Le Pen has found support among some Jewish voters as antisemitism continues to grow in Europe.

The outcome of the second round of voting is likely to shape the future of French politics. A hung parliament could lead to a protracted period of negotiations and political instability, while a clear majority for the RN could have far-reaching implications for the country's social and economic policies.