Hamas's Shift in Tactics: From Direct Engagement to Ambushes and Improvised Bombs

Amidst Israel's ongoing Gaza campaign, Hamas has significantly reduced its forces and shifted from direct confrontations to more evasive tactics, including ambushes and improvised bombs. This change in strategy is prolonging the conflict, as Hamas continues to frustrate Israel's attempts to gain control of the territory.

Hamas, the ruling group in Gaza, has experienced a significant reduction in its forces during the ongoing conflict with Israel. American estimates indicate that Hamas's military strength has dwindled from 20,000-25,000 fighters before the conflict to a current range of 9,000 to 12,000. This depletion of forces has forced Hamas to adopt different tactics to maintain its insurgency against Israel.

Hamas has largely abandoned direct engagements with Israeli troops, opting instead for ambushes and improvised bombs as its primary methods of attack. This shift in strategy allows Hamas fighters to strike targets often behind enemy lines, avoiding sustained skirmishes with Israeli forces. The use of ambushes and bombs has proven effective in frustrating Israel's efforts to take control of Gaza.

According to U.S. officials, these guerrilla tactics could sustain a Hamas insurgency for months to come. This prolonged timeframe is echoed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's national security adviser, who predicted the war could extend into 2024.

Despite the reduction in its forces, Hamas has demonstrated the ability to withdraw rapidly after attacks, take cover, regroup, and launch subsequent attacks from unexpected locations. This mobility and adaptability pose significant challenges for the Israeli military in its efforts to eliminate Hamas.

Hamas has also constructed an extensive network of tunnels, dubbed the "Gaza metro," which provides shelter for its leaders, command centers, and weapons caches. This subterranean city further complicates Israel's efforts to neutralize Hamas and gain control of the territory.

The emergence of criminal gangs in Gaza amid the power vacuum has also added to the complexity of the conflict. These gangs have been seizing food deliveries and conducting armed robberies, creating an atmosphere of lawlessness.

Arab officials have expressed concerns that the current situation in Gaza could mirror the insurgency that emerged in Falluja, Iraq, after the U.S.-led invasion in 2004. Insurgent groups in Falluja grew in strength and plunged Iraq into chaos for years.

To address the post-conflict situation in Gaza, the United States and its Arab allies are working on a plan that involves a time-bound path to Palestinian statehood. However, the realization of this plan depends on Israel's agreement, which has proven elusive due to Netanyahu's repeated rejection of a two-state solution.

David Schenker, a former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State, believes Israel will maintain security control over Gaza, despite calls for a complete withdrawal. Former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot has proposed an Egyptian-led international coalition as an alternative to Hamas rule in Gaza.

The ongoing conflict in Gaza has resulted in significant casualties on both sides. Israel has lost nearly 300 troops, while Palestinian health authorities report over 36,000 fatalities. The United Nations estimates that over a million people in Gaza face severe hunger, underscoring the humanitarian crisis that has accompanied the protracted warfare.