Harris and Trump Locked in Tight Presidential Race

Despite recent events and campaign milestones, the latest Fox News survey shows the 2024 presidential race remains unchanged, with Vice President Kamala Harris trailing former President Donald Trump by a single percentage point.

The latest Fox News national survey reveals that the Biden-Trump dynamic has persisted into the Harris-Trump race, with Harris trailing her Republican opponent by one percentage point, 49-50%. This narrow margin mirrors the results of a previous survey conducted last month, where Harris and Trump were also separated by just one point, with Biden facing a similar deficit at that time.

An analysis of the survey findings sheds light on the factors shaping the presidential race. By one percentage point, more Democrats support Harris (94%) than Republicans back Trump (93%), while the small subgroup of Independents favors Trump by 8 points. Trump retains the loyalty of 95% of his 2020 supporters, while Harris carries 93% of 2020 Biden voters. Notably, new voters (those who haven't participated in the four most recent general elections) split evenly between the two candidates, eroding Trump's 7-point advantage with this group in the previous survey.

Harris and Trump Locked in Tight Presidential Race

The survey highlights a pronounced gender gap, with men favoring Trump by 12 points and women supporting Harris by 10. Trump's best groups include men, White evangelical Christians, rural voters, and White men without a college degree. Harris, on the other hand, enjoys the support of women, Black voters, those under age 30, and college graduates. Her numbers within these groups slightly exceed Biden's performance against Trump in July, although they generally fall short of what Biden achieved closer to Election Day in 2020.

The survey also reveals that those living in union households favor Harris by 10 points, while voters who have served in the military prefer Trump by 22 points. Double haters, those with unfavorable views of both candidates, favor Harris by 41 points, while the small group of Harris-Trump double haters prefer Trump by 15 points.

In the expanded presidential ballot, Harris and Trump received 45% each, while support for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. stands at 6%. All other candidates are at 1%. Support for Kennedy has declined from 10% in July and a high of 15% in November 2023. Seven percent of those backing Harris in the head-to-head matchup defect to third-party candidates, compared to 9% of Trump supporters.

Harris holds an edge on the important measure of personal likeability, with 48% of voters viewing her favorably and 51% unfavorably. Trump remains underwater, with 47-53% ratings, marking his best performance in over four years. Both candidates have improved their ratings since last month, when Harris had a net rating of negative 10 and Trump was negative 12.

Harris's running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, is the only candidate with a net positive rating, with 41% viewing him favorably and 39% unfavorably. Trump's running mate, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, is underwater by 13 points (38-51%). Twice as many Republicans hold a negative view of Vance (21%) as Democrats do of Walz (10%).

Both Harris and Trump supporters express extreme motivation to vote this year, with 68% of each group saying so. In May, Trump backers were 5 points more likely than Biden supporters to express extreme motivation. Biden supporters were previously divided between those voting "for" him and "against" Trump (51-48%), but with Harris in the race, 63% of her backers describe their vote as "for" her. For Trump supporters, it has always been about voting for him (71% in May, 77% now).

Harris bests Trump by 7 points in being seen as honest and trustworthy (48% vs. 41%) and by 5 points in empathy (49% vs. 44%). She leads by 8 points on having the mental soundness to serve effectively as president (58% vs. 50%). Trump has a 5-point edge in being seen as a strong leader (52% vs. 47%).

Nearly half of respondents believe Harris's positions on the issues are "too liberal" (45%), while the same number view Trump as "too conservative" (45%). Roughly equal numbers think each candidate's positions are "about right" (43-45%). Only 28% rate economic conditions positively, but this represents an improvement from the 19% who felt that way in August 2022. At the personal level, 43% rate their financial situation positively, the largest number in over two years. However, this is 10 points behind Biden's first year (53% positive). Majorities continue to give the national economy (73%) and their personal financial situation (57%) negative ratings.

The economy is clearly the top priority for voters, with 38% saying it will be the most important issue in their vote for president. Next comes immigration and abortion, tied at 14% each, with all other issues tested in single digits. Trump has a 6-point advantage over Harris in handling the economy, which he maintained over Biden in previous surveys. He also has the upper hand on border security (19 points), immigration (14 points), foreign policy (7 points), and crime (5 points). Harris is seen as better on climate change (18 points), abortion (16 points), health care (10 points), and uniting the country (5 points). Neither candidate holds a clear advantage on gun policy (Trump +3) or Supreme Court nominations (Harris +3).