Hezbollah: The Hidden X-Factor in the Looming Iran-Israel Conflict

Former IDF spokesperson Jonathan Conricus warns that Hezbollah, a potent Iranian proxy group, poses a formidable threat to Israel in the escalating tensions with Iran, despite Israel's focus on its arch-rival.

Anxiety intensifies over the possibility of a regional conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran, fueled by Tehran's pledge to retaliate for the slaying of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Yet, as Israel confronts its primary adversary, a potentially more perilous threat looms on its border: Hezbollah.

"The significant X factor here is Hezbollah," emphasizes former Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson Jonathan Conricus, currently a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). Hezbollah possesses significant military capabilities, including "nation state capabilities."

Hezbollah: The Hidden X-Factor in the Looming Iran-Israel Conflict

For years, Iran has generously supported Hezbollah, providing weaponry, technical knowledge, and an estimated $700 million annually, according to Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. However, it is not just their strategic prowess that makes Hezbollah a formidable force; it is their proximity to Israel.

Based along Israel's northern border in Lebanon, Hezbollah has been a constant thorn in Israel's security apparatus since its inception in 1982. Hezbollah's rocket and missile capabilities, particularly in light of UN Security Council resolutions prohibiting non-government groups from amassing weapons in Lebanon, pose a substantial challenge to Israeli air defenses.

Hezbollah: The Hidden X-Factor in the Looming Iran-Israel Conflict

Former IDF spokesperson Conricus estimates that Hezbollah has only unveiled a quarter of its strike capabilities. Israel has made it clear that it will not tolerate any attacks from the terrorist group, potentially setting the stage for a brutal confrontation.

"Israel has signaled that this isn't going to be the Second Lebanon War. This is going to be a much more fierce and powerful response from Israel, with less constraints and with less limitations because of what is at stake for Israel," Conricus explains, referring to the 2006 conflict that claimed the lives of 120 IDF soldiers, 40 Israeli civilians, and an estimated 1,100 Lebanese civilians and Hezbollah combatants.

Hezbollah: The Hidden X-Factor in the Looming Iran-Israel Conflict

Israel, the U.S., and the U.K. have quickly bolstered their defensive and offensive capabilities, while security experts speculate on the timing and nature of Iran's retaliation.

Following an emergency meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), Iran's acting Foreign Minister Baqeri Ali Bagheri Kani announced that Tehran will respond to Haniyeh's killing "in the appropriate" manner at the "right time."

Hezbollah: The Hidden X-Factor in the Looming Iran-Israel Conflict

Iran, which attacked Israel in April with hundreds of missiles and drones, is expected to launch a strike two to three times as powerful in its next assault, Conricus believes.

"The challenge here for Iran… is that they're in a bit of uncharted territory having to fight for themselves," Conricus says. "They are being careful and trying to calculate what the Israeli response to the Iranian attack will be, and what they will be putting on the line."

Hezbollah: The Hidden X-Factor in the Looming Iran-Israel Conflict

Iran's threats against Israel have been uncharacteristic, but the killing of Haniyeh in a complex monitored by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has added fuel to the fire.

Iran has now positioned itself for a confrontation with Israel and its Western allies, where it cannot solely rely on proxy fighters like Hezbollah to execute its strategic aims.

Hezbollah: The Hidden X-Factor in the Looming Iran-Israel Conflict

"They are in uncharted territory. They have to really fight," Conricus concludes. "And the Iranians are not used to fighting for themselves."