Historian's Keys Predict Biden's Re-election Challenges, but Replacement Would Be a Mistake

Dr. Allan Lichtman, a historian who has correctly predicted nine of the last 10 presidential elections, discusses his "Keys to the White House" and whether President Biden is in position to win re-election this November.

Dr. Allan Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University and a renowned election forecaster, has shared his insights on President Biden's chances of re-election in November, using his acclaimed "Keys to the White House" formula.

Lichtman's formula, developed with mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok, has accurately predicted the outcomes of presidential elections since 1984 by assessing 13 key parameters. When eight or more of these keys are false, the incumbent White House party is predicted to lose.

Currently, Lichtman assesses that Biden has lost two key factors: the mandate key, based on the Democrats' loss of seats in the 2022 midterm elections, and the charisma key, due to his perceived lack of charisma compared to historical figures like Franklin Roosevelt or John F. Kennedy.

However, Lichtman emphasizes the importance of assessing the remaining keys over time, as their status can fluctuate. Four keys worth monitoring are:

- Third-party candidate support: Whether Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., or another third-party candidate surpasses 10% support in national polls.

- Social unrest: Anti-Israel protests on college campuses.

- Foreign policy success: Biden's handling of the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts.

Lichtman warns against replacing Biden, as the incumbent status and uncontested party nomination keys would be lost. This would put Democrats at a significant disadvantage, increasing the risk of losing in November.

Lichtman's approach contrasts with much of the political commentary focused on horse race theories of elections, which he argues create drama but often fail to provide insights on the direction of the country.

In contrast, the "Keys to the White House" aims to break free from the "political industrial complex" of pollsters, consultants, and media outlets that profit from negative narratives and sensationalism.

Lichtman encourages candidates to focus on articulating clear visions for the country, similar to the impactful campaigns of Barry Goldwater and George McGovern. He believes that campaigns centered around substantive policy proposals have a lasting influence on American politics, regardless of electoral outcomes.

According to Lichtman, Biden's current standing in the polls does not necessarily indicate an insurmountable challenge. The remaining keys will determine the outcome, and it remains to be seen whether the current trends will continue or shift.