Kamala Harris's Rise Boosts Democrats, But Race Against Trump Remains Tight in Michigan

Vice President Kamala Harris's ascension to the top of the Democratic ticket has energized the party's base in Michigan, a critical battleground state, but the race against former President Donald Trump remains a toss-up.

Vice President Kamala Harris's emergence as the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee has brought renewed optimism to Michigan Democrats, according to a recent Fox News poll. The survey found that Harris and Trump are tied at 49% among likely voters in the state, a significant improvement for Democrats who have struggled to gain traction in Michigan under President Joe Biden.

Harris's rise has been particularly beneficial among key Democratic constituencies, including young voters, minorities, and women. She also performs better than Biden among voters who disapprove of the president's job performance.

Kamala Harris's Rise Boosts Democrats, But Race Against Trump Remains Tight in Michigan

However, the race remains close, and Trump maintains a strong base of support among men, rural voters, and White evangelical Christians. The economy is the most important issue for Michigan voters, and Trump holds an advantage over Harris on that front.

Despite the overall dead-even race, Harris has some key advantages over Biden. She is more popular than the former vice president among Democrats and has a more favorable personal rating than Trump. She is also seen as a more energetic and charismatic candidate.

Kamala Harris's Rise Boosts Democrats, But Race Against Trump Remains Tight in Michigan

The poll also suggests that Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer could be a stronger candidate against Trump than Harris. Whitmer outperforms Harris among White voters, women, and Independents. She also has a positive personal rating, while Harris is underwater.

Overall, the race for Michigan remains very competitive. Harris has brought renewed enthusiasm to the Democratic base, but Trump remains a formidable opponent. The outcome of the race could hinge on the economy, which has been struggling under Biden.

Kamala Harris's Rise Boosts Democrats, But Race Against Trump Remains Tight in Michigan

Here is a more detailed breakdown of the Fox News poll results:

* Harris exceeds Biden's performance among some key voting blocs, making it a dead-even race for the first time this year.

* In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, Harris and Trump each garner 49% support.

* Men favor Trump by 13 points, while women back Harris by 12.

* Voters ages 45 and over prefer Trump by 2 points, but Harris is the choice among voters under 35 by 5 points.

* Whites without a college degree pick Trump by 15 points, while Whites with a degree go for Harris by 3 points and voters of color back her by 39 points.

* Harris also receives support from union households (+6 points), and she trails by only 9 points among those who "somewhat" disapprove of Biden’s job performance.

* Other groups backing Trump include Independents (+8 points), rural voters (+20), and White evangelical Christians (+48).

* Compared to Biden in April, Harris performs better with Democrats (by 3 points), men (+5), Whites without a college degree (+6), Black voters (+7), voters under age 35 (+ 12), and those with negative views of both Biden and Trump (double haters +23).

* She does worse than Biden among voters ages 65 and over (-3 points) and suburban women (-2).

* Overall, 7 in 10 say they are extremely motivated to vote this year, and they back Trump over Harris by 1 point.

* About 5 in 10 Michigan voters say they are falling behind financially, while almost 4 in 10 are holding steady, and 1 in 10 are getting ahead.

* The economy dominates for Michigan voters, as more than twice as many (35%) say it will be the most important issue to their vote as say the same about immigration (17%) and abortion (16%).

* Trump is favored among those voting on immigration (+79) and the economy (+31), while those prioritizing abortion prefer Harris (+68).

* In a potential expanded ballot, Harris trails Trump by 2 points (43-45%), with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. getting 7%, and Jill Stein and Cornel West at 1% each.

* Biden won Michigan in 2020 by 2.78 percentage points and received 50.62 percent of the vote. The new survey finds 43% of voters approve of the job he is doing, while 56% disapprove -- including 14% of those who voted for him in 2020.

* Most, 79%, approve of Biden’s decision to abandon his re-election bid and nearly two-thirds want him to finish his term.

* Seven in 10 Michigan Democrats want Harris as the Democratic Party’s nominee, while 2 in 10 favor their governor, Gretchen Whitmer, for the role.

* However, Whitmer outperforms Harris in a potential 2-way matchup against Trump, besting him by a 6-point margin (52-46%).

* She receives more support than Harris among White voters (by 3 points), women (+3), non-college Whites (+4), and Independents (+6).

* Whitmer is also the only one in the survey with a positive personal rating. A 56% majority of Michigan voters has a favorable opinion of her, while 42% view her negatively for a net +14 points. All others are underwater, including Harris (-4 points), Trump (-5), and GOP vice presidential candidate JD Vance (-10). One in five Michigan voters are unable to rate Vance.

* Since April, Biden’s favorable rating has slipped, going from negative by 16 points to negative by 20 today. Trump’s rating, on the other hand, has improved by 3 points over the same period.

* Four years ago this month, Biden’s favorability was +11 and Trump’s was -10 (July 2020).

* "While the race might not look much different based on the horserace, Democrats are clearly in a better position with Harris at the top of the ticket," says Anderson. "Biden had become deeply unpopular in Michigan, but now Democrats can hit the reset button with a candidate with the exact same favorability as Trump and who is capable of campaigning vigorously."