Manchin and Sinema's Exit Could Change Filibuster Fate in Senate

With the expected departure of two key defenders of the filibuster, Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, the Senate's filibuster rule could be at risk if Democrats retain control of the majority after the 2024 elections.

The Senate's filibuster rule, which requires a 60-vote threshold to end debate on most legislation, has been a contentious issue in recent years. Democrats have been pushing for reforms or elimination of the filibuster to overcome Republican opposition to their legislative priorities, while Republicans have staunchly defended it.

With the expected departure of Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, who have been key defenders of the filibuster, the rule's future is uncertain. According to experts, if Democrats retain control of the Senate in 2024, they may have the votes to reform or eliminate the filibuster.

"It would be on the table," said Jim Kessler, former senior aide to Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. However, he expressed skepticism about whether it would actually happen.

Republican strategist Ron Bonjean warned that if Democrats eliminate the filibuster, it would lead to unchecked passage of a "liberal agenda."

While Democrats have blamed Manchin and Sinema for blocking filibuster reform, Kessler suggested that other members of the caucus may have been skeptical of such changes but used the two senators as a shield to avoid expressing their own opposition.

Former Senator Diane Feinstein, described as an institutionalist, would likely have opposed any efforts to end the filibuster, according to Kessler.

Manchin himself believes that eliminating the filibuster would be "the saddest day in the history of the United States." He has argued that it protects democracy and prevents one party from dominating the Senate.

Sinema's office declined to comment on the issue.

Kessler believes that while eliminating the filibuster is unlikely, some rule changes that affect it may still be possible.

In 2022, Democrats sought to reinstate the "talking filibuster," a practice where senators had to physically be on the floor and speaking to delay legislation. This reform would have allowed Democrats to proceed to a vote without 60 senators agreeing to end debate. However, it was rejected by a 48-52 vote, with Manchin and Sinema joining Republicans in opposition.

Despite the setback, vulnerable Democrats up for re-election in 2022 still support filibuster reform, including Senators Tammy Baldwin, Bob Casey, and Jon Tester. Senators Jacky Rosen and Sherrod Brown also face difficult swing-state elections but did not provide comment.

Schumer's office did not comment on whether filibuster reform would be a priority for Democrats if they retain the majority.

Some experts warn that Democrats should be cautious about changing the filibuster, as Republicans are also likely to gain control of the Senate majority in the future and could use the same rules against them.

Non-partisan political handicapper the Cook Political Report has identified seven of the most competitive Senate races in 2022 as being for seats currently held by Democrats. This challenging electoral map could make it difficult for Democrats to hold onto their majority and pursue their legislative agenda.