Mexico's Presidential Candidate Faces Challenges in Reducing Nationwide Violence After Success in Mexico City

Claudia Sheinbaum, the frontrunner in Mexico's upcoming presidential election, has campaigned on the success of her security policies in Mexico City, where she served as mayor. However, experts warn that she could face greater challenges in replicating these policies nationwide due to widespread cartel violence and broader insecurity issues.

With her campaign promise to reduce Mexico's national homicide rate, Claudia Sheinbaum, the frontrunner in Mexico's upcoming presidential election, is facing a daunting task. While she boasts a record of success in cutting crime in Mexico City during her term as mayor, experts caution that extending these policies nationwide presents significant obstacles.

Sheinbaum's success in reducing Mexico City's murder rate by 50% is a testament to her effective security policies, which focused on improving police work and coordinating with prosecutors. She attributes this decline to her efforts to professionalize the police force and empower them with greater responsibilities.

However, Mexico's security crisis is complex and varies significantly across the country. The ongoing conflict between the Sinaloa Cartel and the Jalisco Cartel, along with the presence of smaller crime groups, has led to widespread insecurity.

In places like Michoacan, where Sheinbaum recently canceled a campaign event due to cartel violence, criminal groups exert a level of control that far exceeds what she encountered in Mexico City. This highlights the challenges she will face in applying her successful policies nationwide.

Six out of ten Mexicans consider insecurity to be their country's main problem, according to a recent survey. Sheinbaum's plan to tackle this issue involves doubling the number of federal investigators, increasing National Guard troops, reducing impunity, and implementing youth education and community programs.

While Sheinbaum's advisors acknowledge the differences between Mexico City and the country as a whole, they believe that many of the lessons learned in the capital can be applied nationally.

Critics, however, argue that Sheinbaum's plan lacks specifics and relies too heavily on the continuation of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's security policies. López Obrador's strategy of reducing confrontations with organized crime groups has been criticized for allowing violence to spike.

Furthermore, some experts question the extent of Sheinbaum's success in reducing crime in Mexico City, citing the large number of deaths categorized as "events of undetermined intent." Miscategorization of these deaths could account for some of the reported decline in the murder rate.

Disappearance cases, which have increased in Mexico City under Sheinbaum, could also contribute to the reduction in official homicide numbers. Sheinbaum's team rejects these accusations and maintains that the decline in homicides is genuine.

Despite the challenges, Sheinbaum remains optimistic about her ability to reduce Mexico's national homicide rate. Her advisors are confident that her experience and policies can translate to the broader national landscape, even in volatile regions like Michoacan.

However, the daunting reality of Mexico's ongoing security crisis suggests that Sheinbaum's aspirations may face significant obstacles, and her ability to replicate her success in Mexico City nationwide remains a major question mark.