New Poll Suggests Trump Verdicts May Have Little Impact on 2024 Election

A Monmouth University poll indicates that the convictions against former President Trump in his New York trial have minimal impact on his 2024 election rematch with President Biden, with both candidates continuing to draw almost identical levels of support.

A recent national poll conducted by Monmouth University sheds light on the potential impact of the guilty verdicts against former President Trump in his recent criminal trial on the upcoming 2024 presidential election. The poll suggests that the verdicts may have little influence on the race, with both Trump and Biden maintaining similar levels of support among voters.

According to the survey, just over four in ten registered voters say they will either definitely or probably vote for the Democratic incumbent, President Biden. In a separate question, a nearly identical number indicate they will definitely or probably vote for his Republican predecessor in the White House, former President Trump. These results have remained relatively stable since last fall in Monmouth national polling.

New Poll Suggests Trump Verdicts May Have Little Impact on 2024 Election

Despite the verdicts in Trump's trial, the poll found that his support among Republican voters has not wavered significantly. Trump has consistently held a slight polling edge over Biden in most surveys in the crucial seven battleground states across the country that will likely determine the outcome of the presidential rematch.

The poll also reveals that opinions regarding the trial itself are largely divided along partisan lines. Nearly half of those questioned in the Monmouth survey, 47%, agree with the jury's guilty verdicts in Trump's trial, while 34% disagree. This aligns with other national surveys conducted since the end of the trial, which indicate that about half of those questioned approve of the verdicts.

New Poll Suggests Trump Verdicts May Have Little Impact on 2024 Election

However, when asked about the motivations behind the trial, a majority, 57%, expressed belief that it was politically motivated. In contrast, only 48% thought that the charges against Hunter Biden, the president's son, were politically motivated.

"Many Americans are skeptical about these high-profile trials and there is a clear partisan gap depending on which defendant we are talking about," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. "Still, the results indicate Republicans have a higher level of distrust in our judicial process than Democrats do."

New Poll Suggests Trump Verdicts May Have Little Impact on 2024 Election

The poll was conducted June 6-10, before Tuesday's conviction of Hunter Biden, with 1,106 adults nationwide questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

Overall, the Monmouth poll suggests that Trump's guilty verdicts may not have a substantial impact on the 2024 election, as voters remain largely divided along partisan lines. Trump continues to hold a slight polling edge over Biden in battleground states, while Biden enjoys a fundraising advantage and a stronger ground game operation. The trial itself has drawn mixed reactions, with many expressing skepticism about its political motivations.

New Poll Suggests Trump Verdicts May Have Little Impact on 2024 Election