Putin's Next Moves: What to Expect from Russia in Ukraine and Beyond

As the third Easter of the Russia-Ukraine war approaches, tensions remain high. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski analyzes Putin's recent actions and predicts how the Russian strongman may proceed. Sikorski shares his insights into Putin's military plans, assassination attempts on President Zelenskyy, and his strategy for confronting Washington.

Amid Ukraine's manpower and equipment shortages, Russia is poised to launch a major counteroffensive campaign in northeastern Ukraine. This operation could commence shortly after the Victory Day Parade, aiming to break through Ukrainian lines by summer. Russia's troop buildup of 100,000 troops and increased defense spending are indicative of its determination. Putin believes the momentum favors Russia, but he is concerned about NATO's potential intervention.

To deter NATO from deploying forces into the Ukrainian theater, Russia will conduct military exercises involving tactical nuclear weapons. These unprecedented drills serve as a strategic signal to Washington and NATO to stay out of Russia's perceived security perimeter. Putin aims to strengthen Russia's position by showcasing its nuclear capabilities.

During his inauguration speech, Putin highlighted Russia's historical claim to Ukraine, stating that the nation originated from Kievan Rus. This claim resonates with 77% of Russians, who believe Russia's right to Ukraine and expect victory in the war. Strengthening this bond with the annexed regions is a key part of Putin's strategy.

The hunt for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is likely to intensify as Russia seeks to eliminate him. Zelenskyy has been on Russia's wanted list since the invasion began and has survived several assassination attempts. A recent disruption of a Russian covert operation targeting Zelenskyy's security team further highlights the Kremlin's determination.

Russia fears a direct war with the U.S. and NATO but views Washington's support for Ukraine as a threat to its strategic buffer zone. The continuous supply of vital weapons to Ukraine has exacerbated Moscow's concerns, leading to intelligence assessments indicating an "inevitable" future conflict between Russia and NATO.

Russian intelligence services will likely intensify their efforts to arrest U.S. citizens traveling to Russia as a way to rattle the Biden administration and acquire bargaining chips. Moscow has a history of successful prisoner swaps favorable to Russia and may seek similar arrangements for detained U.S. citizens.

Despite claims by Washington politicians, Putin is unlikely to invade a NATO nation, which would trigger NATO's collective defense mechanism. He is acutely aware of Russia's conventional inferiority visa-a-vis NATO and would not intentionally initiate a conflict that would escalate into a full-scale war with NATO.

As a rational actor, Putin understands Russia's limitations and vulnerabilities. While he may authorize a tactical nuclear strike in Ukraine under certain scenarios, he would not risk a war with NATO. This assessment is supported by multiple U.S. intelligence community assessments.

Russia's military has suffered significant losses in Ukraine, with an estimated 300,000 casualties and thousands of equipment losses. Its forces face issues of attrition, personnel shortages, and morale challenges. Economically, Russia is facing sanctions and isolation, limiting its capacity for a prolonged conflict.