Tensions Escalate over Cross-Border Balloon Launches

South Korea braces for possible new launches of trash-filled balloons from North Korea, following last week's exchange of balloons carrying propaganda and garbage. This latest provocation further heightens tensions between the neighboring rivals.

Tensions between North and South Korea have erupted over the recent exchange of cross-border balloon launches. Last week, North Korea sent around 1,000 balloons carrying manure, cigarette butts, and other trash into South Korea. This came in response to South Korean activists sending balloons carrying political leaflets to the North.

North Korea's vice defense minister initially stated that the balloon campaign would cease, but threatened its resumption if South Korean activists sent leaflets again. However, South Korean civilian groups defied this warning and launched balloons carrying anti-North Korean material.

The balloon launches have escalated tensions due to several reasons. Firstly, South Korea fears that North Korea may launch balloons with biological or hazardous materials in the future. Secondly, North Korea sees the launches as retaliation against South Korean propaganda leaflets and an attempt to divide the South over its government's tough stance on the North.

South Korea has suspended a 2018 military agreement on easing frontline tensions with North Korea. They have also warned of "unbearable" retaliation if the balloon launches continue. North Korea will likely retaliate with its own measures, further escalating tensions.

Balloon launches with propaganda leaflets have been a common form of psychological warfare between the Koreas during the Korean War and the Cold War. However, the recent North Korean balloons carried only garbage, a deviation from past practices.

The balloon launches evoke memories of Cold War-style psychological warfare tactics used by both Koreas, including frontline loudspeaker broadcasts and propaganda radio broadcasts. However, these activities have been banned in recent years, but may be resumed as tensions escalate.

South Korea is considering restarting frontline live-fire drills or loudspeaker broadcasts of anti-North Korean messages and outside news in retaliation for the balloon campaign. Such actions would provoke further escalation from North Korea.

South Korean authorities have no legal basis to ban private citizens from flying balloons to North Korea after a constitutional court ruling last year struck down a law criminalizing leafleting as a violation of free speech.

Many in South Korea believe that loudspeaker broadcasts would severely impact North Korea's leadership as they could demoralize frontline troops and residents, potentially weakening Kim Jong Un's authority.

In 2015, South Korea's resumption of loudspeaker broadcasts led to North Korea firing artillery across the border. South Korea responded with gunfire, but no casualties were reported.