The Downfall of No. 1 Overall Picks in the NFL: A Case Study of Bryce Young

The Carolina Panthers' decision to bench Bryce Young after just 18 games highlights the struggles of No. 1 overall picks in the NFL, with none having won a Super Bowl since 2011. This trend prompts a re-examination of how young quarterbacks are evaluated and developed in the league.

The Carolina Panthers' decision to bench Bryce Young after only 18 games continues a disconcerting trend of No. 1 overall picks enduring mixed success in the NFL. Since 2011, 10 quarterbacks have been selected with the first overall pick, but none have won a Super Bowl. Cam Newton remains the only former No. 1 overall pick to earn an MVP Award during this period.

These statistics may astound draft experts who enthusiastically extol the transformative potential of franchise quarterback prospects throughout the pre-draft process. However, the harsh reality of QB1 struggles should compel NFL scouting and coaching communities to reconsider how young quarterbacks are assessed and nurtured in the league.

The Downfall of No. 1 Overall Picks in the NFL: A Case Study of Bryce Young

From the traits general managers, scouts, and coaches seek, to assembling the ideal supporting cast for a potential franchise quarterback, to adequately equipping a young quarterback to play, team builders should thoroughly examine the Bryce Young experience to identify lessons learned from the failures of another No. 1 overall pick.

Before analyzing the Panthers' missteps in developing Young, it is crucial to review his scouting report and expected NFL performance. As a 5'10", 200-pound dropback passer, Young defied the odds due to his exceptional football IQ and processing skills. While most undersized quarterbacks rely on exceptional athleticism, speed, or agility to compensate for their lack of size, Young operated as a traditional pocket passer at Alabama.

Critics pointed to Young's extraordinary supporting cast at Alabama as a significant factor in his success. However, it was difficult to deny his remarkable production (65.8% completion rate, 8,356 passing yards, 80 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions in 35 career games) or his leadership in guiding the Crimson Tide to a 23-4 record during his two years as a starter. He consistently showcased the composure and clutch playmaking ability coveted by coaches in a franchise quarterback.

Beyond his on-field performance, Young possessed the intangibles, work ethic, and football character to excel as the face of a franchise. He had been an outstanding representative of championship-caliber programs in college and high school (Mater Dei in Santa Ana, California), and this experience was expected to serve him well as the No. 1 overall pick entering the league.

After reviewing my scouting report on Young, I admired his intelligence, confidence, and poise as a franchise leader with playoff aspirations. His history of leading championship-caliber programs prepared him for his role as a franchise quarterback, while his on-field abilities should have elevated a team from average to good or good to great.

However, observing Young's recent performances, it is evident that he is a shell of his former self. The former first-rounder has lost his confidence as a playmaker, and his indecisiveness has hindered the Panthers' offensive rhythm. While the lack of pass protection and inconsistent performance of perimeter playmakers have undoubtedly impacted the young quarterback, he is not relying on the system or releasing the ball promptly.

Young's hesitancy has eroded his teammates' confidence in him. With veterans questioning his readiness and ability, the Panthers' head coach made the difficult decision to replace him with Andy Dalton.

Fair or not, Young's benching underscores the importance of teams adhering to the "3Ps" when aiming to set up a young quarterback for success. The "3Ps" encompass the play caller, protectors (offensive line), and playmakers (wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs) and their impact on the quarterback's performance and development.

In Young's case, the Panthers' deficiencies in each of these areas prevented him from realizing his potential as a franchise quarterback. In just over a year, Young had three different play-callers (Frank Reich, Thomas Brown, and Dave Canales), potentially confusing and daunting him. Moreover, the varying perspectives on play execution could have contributed to his hesitation in the pocket.

Adding to the challenges, the Panthers' offensive line has struggled since 2023, exposing the undersized pocket passer to constant pressure and long odds of succeeding. With 68 sacks and countless hits in 18 games, it is understandable why Young appeared jittery within the pocket.

Although the Panthers attempted to surround Young with playmakers on the perimeter, the 2023 additions (Adam Thielen, Miles Sanders, and Jonathan Mingo) failed to provide the necessary support. The team's most recent additions (Diontae Johnson, Xavier Legette, and Ja'Tavion Sanders) have also failed to establish a connection with the young passer.

Perhaps the lack of preseason reps as a unit hindered Young's ability to connect with his teammates. However, the production simply was not there, even with a revamped supporting cast that should have yielded better results.

As a team builder evaluating Young's failures, I believe the lack of support in several key areas likely contributed to his struggles in a league that relentlessly challenges young quarterbacks. With Young serving as a case study of what to avoid when nurturing a potential franchise quarterback, the Panthers' mishandling of this outlier could become a valuable lesson for future prospects if general managers and scouts absorb these learnings.