Trump Trial Verdict Unlikely to Sway Voters, Poll Shows

A new poll indicates that regardless of whether Donald Trump is convicted or acquitted in his criminal trial, the outcome will have a minimal impact on voters' perceptions in his 2024 election rematch with President Biden.

Amidst the ongoing criminal trial of former President Donald Trump, a recent poll has shed light on the potential impact of the verdict on voters' perceptions in the 2024 presidential rematch. According to the NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist National Poll, a guilty verdict would not significantly alter voters' intentions, with two-thirds of registered voters stating that it would make no difference to their vote in the presidential election.

Despite the charges against him, Trump maintains a slight lead over Biden in both national and crucial battleground state polls. The verdict in this historic case, which represents the first criminal trial in U.S. history for a former or current president, could potentially influence the outcome of their rematch.

Trump faces 34 state felony charges related to alleged falsified business records concerning hush money payments made during the 2016 election to Stormy Daniels, an adult film actress, in exchange for her silence about an alleged affair with Trump. Prosecutors contend that these payments constitute an illegal attempt to influence the election.

Both Cohen, Trump's former attorney, and Daniels testified for the prosecution, providing damaging evidence against Trump. Trump has consistently denied falsifying business records or engaging in a sexual encounter with Daniels. He has also repeatedly characterized the case as a politically motivated "SHAM TRIAL."

Notably, the judge in the case has issued fines and threatened jail time to Trump for violating a gag order aimed at shielding witnesses and jurors from his verbal attacks.

Veteran pollster Chris Anderson, a member of the Fox News Election Decision Team, opined that "a guilty verdict would not fundamentally change the landscape of the race." Similarly, Daron Shaw, a politics professor and chair at the University of Texas and a member of the Fox News Decision Team, noted that "while the specific findings of the jury could matter, I think there is a sense that a conviction in this case would not appreciably change the dynamics of the race."

Both Anderson and Shaw attribute the muted impact of the potential verdict to the entrenched attitudes towards both Trump and Biden.

The Marist Poll was conducted May 21-23, surveying 1,122 registered voters nationwide with a sampling error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

In addition to the poll results, the article delves into the details of the ongoing trial, including the charges against Trump, the evidence presented, and Trump's response to the allegations. It also provides context about the historical significance of the case and its potential implications on the upcoming presidential election.