Trump's Criminal Trial: Potential Impact on the 2024 Presidential Election

A pending verdict in the historic criminal trial against former President Trump could have serious consequences in the 2024 election between Trump and President Biden.

With the jury entering deliberations in former President Trump's criminal trial, the potential impact on the 2024 presidential election looms large. Trump is charged with falsifying business records in relation to payments made to adult film actress Stormy Daniels during the 2016 election to silence her about an alleged affair.

A guilty verdict, although unlikely to alter the overall dynamics of the race, could potentially lead to a small but decisive drop in support for Trump. According to a Quinnipiac University survey, 15% of registered voters said a guilty verdict would make them more likely to vote for Trump, while 21% said it would make them less likely.

Trump's supporters remain largely steadfast in their support, with eight out of 10 saying they would still back him if convicted, according to an ABC News/Ipsos poll. However, a Reuters-Ipsos poll indicates a two-point shift away from Trump if convicted and a six-point shift if he were sentenced to prison.

Political analysts have noted that the esoteric nature of the case, coupled with the perception of partisan bias by the prosecution and judge, has influenced public opinion. Most voters have already formed strong opinions about Trump and the charges against him.

An acquittal or a hung jury, which the Trump campaign would likely portray as a political victory, could have a significant impact on his reelection prospects. However, there is limited polling on these specific scenarios.

Regardless of the outcome, the trial has had a negative impact on Trump's campaign. Anderson, a member of the Fox News Decision Team, believes that a not guilty verdict could provide him with a sense of vindication, but it is unlikely to become a net positive for him.

The trial has also highlighted the deep political divisions in the country. A Fox News national poll conducted earlier this month found that nearly half of registered voters believe Trump violated campaign finance laws, while only 27% said he did nothing seriously wrong.

Shaw, another member of the Fox News Decision Team, emphasizes that a conviction would not significantly change the dynamics of the race because attitudes towards both Trump and Biden are firmly entrenched.

Both analysts agree that a guilty verdict could resemble the impact of the infamous "Access Hollywood" video, where Trump's poll numbers temporarily declined before recovering in the lead-up to the 2016 election.

The outcome of the trial will undoubtedly have an impact on the 2024 presidential election, although the extent of that impact remains uncertain. The verdict will provide valuable insights into the electorate's attitudes towards Trump, the charges against him, and the potential consequences of a guilty verdict on his reelection hopes.