Trump's Path to Victory: Outperforming Polling By One Point

CNN's data guru predicts that former President Trump can win the White House if he outperforms current polling by just one percentage point, making this the closest presidential race in decades.

CNN's senior data reporter, Harry Enten, has declared that the 2022 presidential race between former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is extraordinarily close, with the outcome potentially hinging on Trump outperforming current polling by a mere one point.

Enten emphasized that this race is unprecedented in its closeness, with no presidential contest in the past 60 years featuring a three-week period where one candidate maintained a five-point lead over the other. However, this campaign has yet to witness such a significant lead materialize.

Trump's Path to Victory: Outperforming Polling By One Point

"We're talking about the closest campaign in a generation where a single point could make all the difference in the world," Enten stated.

The reporter analyzed the battleground states, revealing that Harris currently holds a slim lead over Trump by an average of only six-tenths of a point. This is narrower than the nine-tenths of a point advantage that President Biden had over Trump in these states during the 2020 election.

Trump's Path to Victory: Outperforming Polling By One Point

"My goodness gracious, that is how tight we are talking right now across these seven battleground states," Enten remarked.

If the election results perfectly mirrored today's polling, Harris would emerge victorious with 292 electoral votes, while Trump would secure 246. However, Enten simulated a scenario where Trump outperformed current polling by one percentage point, resulting in a Trump victory with 287 electoral votes to Harris's 251.

Trump's Path to Victory: Outperforming Polling By One Point

"John, this is a truly exciting race right now, where any slight movement can make all the difference," Enten concluded.

Journalist Mark Halperin echoed these sentiments, noting that the closeness of the election is a concern for the Harris campaign. He pointed out that Harris's lead in swing states is within the margin of error, casting doubt on her projected advantage.

Halperin expressed his apprehension for Harris, stating that the current polling numbers are "a scary place" to be in just a couple of months before the election, especially if Trump gains momentum. He even predicted that "by the middle of September," Trump could be "ahead in all the Sun Belt states."

In conclusion, the 2022 presidential race stands as one of the closest in recent history, with the potential outcome hinging on the slightest shifts in public opinion. Trump's ability to outperform current polling by even one point could significantly alter the electoral landscape, making this an unpredictable and captivating contest to watch unfold.