Trump's Popularity Surges, Posing Challenge for Democrats in 2024

Despite President Biden's withdrawal from the race, CNN data guru Harry Enten warns that Democrats face a formidable opponent in former President Trump, who enjoys unprecedented popularity ahead of the 2024 election.

CNN's senior data reporter, Harry Enten, has sounded a warning to the Democratic Party, asserting that even if Vice President Kamala Harris becomes their presidential nominee, they will confront an exceptionally formidable opponent in former President Donald Trump, who has never been more popular.

Trump's Popularity Surges, Posing Challenge for Democrats in 2024

Enten presented several polls on CNN, indicating that Trump's national approval rating has reached new heights during his entire political career. Defeating him in November would present a significant challenge for Harris if she faces him in the election.

"Yes, Democrats can make this switcheroo, but they're still going to have to beat Donald Trump, a Donald Trump who is stronger, Sara, than he has ever been before," Enten stated to anchor Sara Sidner.

Trump's Popularity Surges, Posing Challenge for Democrats in 2024

Enten showcased two recent national polls, one conducted by ABC/Ipsos and the other by Quinnipiac University, which revealed Trump's popularity following the Republican National Convention last week.

"We know that Donald Trump has historically been unpopular, but take a look now," he said. "After the Republican National Convention, in the ABC News/Ipsos poll, he recorded his highest ever favorable rating at 40%. That's not a one-off."

Trump's Popularity Surges, Posing Challenge for Democrats in 2024

Referring to the other poll, he continued, "Take a look at the Quinnipiac University poll: 46%. That's the highest ever in that pollster."

"The fact is, Donald Trump is more popular now than he ever has been before," Enten declared, summarizing the new polls.

Enten then compared Trump's potential matchup against Harris in a presidential election to his performance against Biden in the 2020 race. According to Enten's aggregate numbers, Trump currently holds an edge over Harris in national popular vote polling, while he trailed Biden during the 2020 election, which he ultimately lost.

"If we take a look at the national average, what do we see? We see Donald Trump up by one. That's a within-the-margin race. That's a close race," Enten said.

He contrasted this to the Biden/Trump numbers from the previous election cycle, where Biden won the electoral college and the national popular vote by four points.

"So at this point, Donald Trump is running five points better – five points better – than he was four years ago against Joe Biden," Enten said, adding, "… Whether you look at the favorable ratings, whether you look at the horse race polling, we see that Donald Trump is doing significantly better than he was doing four years ago at this point."

Enten issued a cautionary note for Harris, who became the presumptive Democratic Party nominee after Biden suspended his campaign over the weekend.

"Kamala Harris is going to have to do better than this of course if she wants to win the popular vote, but more than that if she wants to win the electoral college where she'll likely have to outperform how she's done nationally," the reporter added, although he acknowledged that there hasn't been national polling on Harris since Biden dropped out of the race.

Enten's analysis highlights the significant challenge that Democrats face in the upcoming election. Despite Vice President Harris's potential nomination, Trump's surge in popularity poses a formidable obstacle for the party to overcome. It remains to be seen how Harris will fare against Trump in the polls, but Enten's data suggests that Democrats will need to mount a robust campaign to secure a victory in 2024.