US Nuclear Arsenal Lags: Experts Warn of Growing Disadvantage

Amid escalating geopolitical tensions, security officials raise concerns about the US's outdated nuclear deterrence strategy, calling for significant expansion and diversification of the nation's arsenal to counter growing nuclear capabilities in China, North Korea, and Iran.

For decades, the United States has relied on a post-Cold War approach to nuclear deterrence, assuming that its vast nuclear arsenal provides sufficient protection against potential threats. However, recent geopolitical developments, coupled with the advancement of nuclear capabilities by adversarial nations, have forced experts to question the adequacy of this strategy.

Former special adviser for countering weapons of mass destruction within the Obama administration, Robert Peters, asserts that the US has neglected its nuclear arsenal, allowing China and Russia to expand their stockpiles and achieve nuclear parity with the United States by the 2030s. This inaction poses a significant risk, as nuclear disadvantage could increase the likelihood of nuclear war.

US Nuclear Arsenal Lags: Experts Warn of Growing Disadvantage

The Heritage Foundation report titled "Building the Nuclear Arsenal of the 21st Century" highlights the dangers facing the US in the wake of failed nuclear agreements and the increasingly hostile geopolitical landscape. Peters argues that the US must abandon its long-held goal of global nuclear disarmament and instead focus on expanding and diversifying its strategic arsenal.

The report recommends increasing the ballistic missile submarine force, augmenting warheads on ground-based strategic deterrents, and uploading non-strategic nuclear warheads from reserve stockpiles for existing theater capabilities. Peters also advises stationing additional nuclear weapons in Europe and the Western Pacific, a move that has drawn mixed reactions.

US Nuclear Arsenal Lags: Experts Warn of Growing Disadvantage

Russia's unilateral withdrawal from the 2010 New START treaty has raised concerns about its commitment to nuclear arms control. The treaty, which limited the number of deployed warheads, expired in 2023. Moscow's unwillingness to engage in negotiations with the US coincides with Beijing's refusal to participate in any nuclear dialogue.

China's unchecked nuclear expansion, fueled by advanced technology, has been a cause for alarm. While Beijing's stockpile is smaller than that of the US and Russia, its rapid growth has raised concerns about its intentions. North Korea, estimated to possess around 50 warheads, also poses a potential threat to regional stability.

US Nuclear Arsenal Lags: Experts Warn of Growing Disadvantage

The strategy of nuclear deterrence, based on the principle of mutually assured destruction, has been a cornerstone of US national security since the Cold War. However, Peters argues that this strategy is no longer sufficient given the emergence of low-yield nuclear weapons and other strategic factors.

Peters proposes a new approach that strengthens deterrence while eliminating potential escalation pathways for adversaries. He acknowledges that nuclear deterrence is expensive but emphasizes that it is far more cost-effective than countering a nuclear war.

US Nuclear Arsenal Lags: Experts Warn of Growing Disadvantage

The report, intended for the incoming administration, underscores the urgency of addressing the US's nuclear arsenal. It urges the Biden administration to recognize that nuclear disarmament goals are currently impractical and to prioritize building and fielding a credible nuclear arsenal to prevent war and deter potential aggressors.