VP Debate Unlikely to Sway Undecided Voters, but Could Impact Candidate Perceptions

Experts believe the upcoming vice presidential debate between JD Vance and Tim Walz will have little direct impact on undecided voters, but could indirectly shape their views of the presidential candidates.

In the highly anticipated vice presidential debate scheduled for October 1, 2022, Republican Ohio Sen. JD Vance and Democrat Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz will face off in a battle of words that is unlikely to significantly alter the trajectory of the presidential race. However, analysts suggest that the debate could indirectly impact voter perceptions of the presidential candidates, Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

According to Christopher Devine, author of "Do Running Mates Matter?: The Influence of Vice Presidential Candidates in Presidential Elections," vice presidential debates typically garner less attention and influence compared to presidential debates. While the upcoming debate may produce memorable moments, it is unlikely to match the level of interest generated during the 2008 VP debate featuring Sarah Palin and Joe Biden.

VP Debate Unlikely to Sway Undecided Voters, but Could Impact Candidate Perceptions

Tevi Troy, a presidential historian and former George W. Bush Cabinet member, concurs with Devine's assessment. He notes that the debate will likely reflect more on the candidates' personal performances than on the overall race.

Despite the anticipated lower profile of the VP debate, Troy highlights the unique circumstances surrounding Harris's candidacy. Harris has largely avoided unscripted interviews and critical scrutiny, which could make her debate performance especially impactful.

VP Debate Unlikely to Sway Undecided Voters, but Could Impact Candidate Perceptions

Vance, on the other hand, has faced criticism for past statements, including his comments on abortion. Walz is expected to capitalize on these past controversies by portraying Vance as extreme.

Troy further points out Walz's tendency to avoid directly addressing Harris's political views, which are generally considered liberal. Walz's reluctance to embrace Harris's positions could be a strategic attempt to distance himself from potentially unpopular stances.

VP Debate Unlikely to Sway Undecided Voters, but Could Impact Candidate Perceptions

In the aftermath of the presidential debate between Trump and Harris, a Fox News Poll revealed that voters perceived Harris as having performed better than Trump. With no further presidential debates scheduled before the November election, the running mate performances in the VP debate could be crucial in shaping the final perceptions of the candidates.

In the VP debate, Vance is expected to criticize Walz's progressive policies in Minnesota, while Walz will likely focus on Vance's past statements and portray him as out of touch with the mainstream. The debate will be closely watched for its potential impact on the race, even if its direct effect on undecided voters is expected to be minimal.

VP Debate Unlikely to Sway Undecided Voters, but Could Impact Candidate Perceptions